Predicting an election is a partisan affair, and has been compared to two rival sports teams operating their own manual scoreboards without seeing the game unfold before them. This time around, Democrats point to the raw figures of the polls, and to subtler tells, like Trump repeatedly campaigning in states he won comfortably in 2016. Coupled with bombshell stories of Trump’s party and allies preparing for a “bloodbath” at the polls, they paint a picture of a blue wave ready to wash away the aberration that was the Trump presidency.
Republicans counter that polling routinely oversamples Democrats, and that the GOP is outperforming the Democratic Party in registering new voters in key swing states. They say that enthusiasm for Trump is through the roof, with the president packing out rallies every day, while Biden struggles to draw more than a few dozen people to his socially distanced events.
While Democrats say that Trump’s campaigning in Pennsylvania indicates a drop in support there since 2016, Republicans argue that if Biden truly were leading in the state, he wouldn’t have to dispatch Barack Obama to Philadelphia to stump for him on Wednesday.
Divining the pre-election tea leaves is a dark art, especially in the chaotic final days of campaign season. Last-minute surprises – like Hunter Biden’s emails or Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis – can always tip the needle. Yet, more than anything, Trump’s supporters see the media’s prediction of a Biden victory as proof that the president will pull off another stunning upset, a view based as much on gut instinct as the 2016 experience.
Pollsters are going to be humiliated in a way that makes 2016 look like a "decent job."
Seniors pulling a bait-and-switch on the Biden campaign, white working class coming out of the woodwork, crawling over 50 miles of broken glass to vote for Trump, conservatives who stayed home in 16 now on board, improved margins with Hispanics and Blacks.
Nobody can predict the result with absolute certainty, and anyone who claims to likely has a partisan agenda to sell. However, the more confident the assurances of the supposedly impartial media, the more crushing the defeat will be, should voters back Trump on November 3.
